The rigorous moderate position of Bjorn Lomborg.
I decided to buy Bjorn Lomborg’s recent book “False Alarm” after hearing a few interviews. This scholarly Dane was quite persuasive. I have read material asserting that we are in an existential crisis and have read deniers who argue that in the light of geological history, human-caused global warming is not a credible theory, but that recent warming trends are due to normal cycles of the Sun. Lomborg comes down the middle. His book amazed me with its sheer weight of sources and scholarship. This is a summary of his conclusions. I encourage my readers to buy the book and follow his arguments.
First, Lomborg argues that human-caused global warming is a real and significant problem that should be addressed. He does follow the consensus of scientists on this and does not credit the scientists with serious objections to the theory.
Secondly, Lomborg believes that the way the governments of the world propose to deal with this is wrong, and will cost multiple trillions of dollars with very limited decreases in global temperatures by 2100.
Thirdly, while not seeking to bring down the warming trends would be a mistake, the proposed solutions will lead millions and millions to poverty and many to death. Indeed, if nothing is done and world prosperity or wealth increases for nations through development life would still greatly improve despite the problems with global warming. Present solutions hinder the progress of the poorer countries and will increase poverty in wealthy countries. Solar panels and windmills will do very little to solve the problem, but governments are lining the pockets of the special interests of those who make up the green lobby and transfer wealth to them!
It should be noted that Lomborg shows that the politicians and activists are alarmists and are not representing the UN Climate Panel scientists accurately. Their actual summaries are not alarmist presentations that are presented by activists and the politicians that follow them.
What does he propose to do?
- First of all, until there is more technological progress, we should not curtail gas production and oil. We should phase out coal. Just phasing out coal and switching to natural gas which is half as polluting would make a great contribution.
- Gas and oils are crucial in producing wealth. Wealthier nations will be more able to innovate and prevent the dangerous effects of warming. We should not impoverish nations and peoples now by refusing to use oil and gas.
- Electric cars, not eating meat, and other activist solutions will hardly make a dent in the problem so the focus should not be on such things. Of course, in some climates, solar panels and wind power can be a limited aid.
- We should spend money on mitigation efforts against the effects of warming which will occur and actually though the warming of the world is not an overall good, it does have some benefits. With the right mitigation efforts, nations and peoples can adjust to the warming.
- We should look to the answer as being more in future technological advances. Much should be spent on research and development. Some possibilities cannot be predicted but we have some promising ideas. New safe nuclear development could be a key and the best type if duplicated will have a very good effect. However, there are other clean technology ideas that could be developed and might be cost-effective whereas today’s solutions are not.
To summarize, the world will get much warmer, but we can have hope that the warming will be less than it otherwise would be if we take the right steps. The answer is gas as a transition fuel, nuclear and other new technologies yet to be developed, and increased wealth in nations which will enable them to implement mitigation efforts to prevent the worst effects of the warming.
However, the apocalyptic propaganda that is scaring people half to death, spreading hopelessness to youth, and the irrational, “Do something radical,” directions that some are promoting, will lead to great damage and trillions of wasted dollars that would be better spent in research and mitigation, hence the book title “False Alarm.”
Agree or not, Lomborg has written a persuasive book that should be read by all who seek to deal with the issues. It requires a reasoned response by those who disagree. Its research is massive, both on the scientific side and the economic side.